Oregon Prof’s Rant Goes Mainstream

Aaron Taylor

The Kids Are All Right: Today’s Law Students Aren’t Less Qualified

It makes logical sense. Employers are hiring fewer lawyers and graduates are leaving with higher debt. Naturally, the best-and-brightest would shy away from law school, the traditional safety net for liberal arts grads. Sensing opportunity, less accomplished students would rush in to fill the void. And law schools would welcome them with open arms, knowing they need fresh bodies to stay afloat.
Just one problem… the reality is exactly the opposite.
Those were the findings of Aaron Taylor, an assistant professor of law at the Saint Louis University School of Law. In an essay in The National Jurist, Taylor debunks the notion that law schools have diluted student talent to remain solvent. In fact, today’s students measure up quite well against their predecessors.
Let’s start with LSAT scores and grade point averages. In 2010, the median LSAT for new enrollees was 157, with a median undergrad GPA of 3.41. Compare that with 2013 enrollees, who earned a 155 LSAT and a 3.38 GPA. A decrease, you say? Absolutely! Is it statistically significant? Not really.
Here’s why: LSATs are based on a score band, a range where the actual score fits. In other words, an LSAT score is basically an estimate, as standardized tests carry a standard error of measurement (referred to as a “SEM”). Here’s why this is critical:
“The LSAT has an SEM of 2.6 points. Therefore, score bands range from -3 to +3 of an applicant’s observed score. So if an applicant has an observed score of 155, his score band would be 152-158…Complicating the matter even more, this range is guaranteed to be accurate only about 68 percent of the time – meaning, there is almost a 1-in-3 chance that an applicant’s true score falls outside (above or below) even the score band.”
Now, let’s apply the SEM principle to 2013 LSAT scores. This 152-158 range for a 2013 LSAT of 155 actually overlaps the 157 median score average from 2010.
Now, let’s look at this from a macro perspective. According to Taylor, 32 law schools “experienced declines in application volume of 50 percent or more” from 2010-2013. However, these schools reported that median LSAT scores dipped 2.5 points during that time (while all the remaining accredited law schools witnessed a decline of 2.15 points). In both cases, these declines were within the SEM. What’s more, if you exclude the 32 schools, the median LSAT rises to 156, just a point below 2010’s median score.
Need more evidence? Consider this analysis from Taylor:
“Twenty-eight schools saw their admit rates increase 25 percent or more between 2010 and 2013. Could these trends be direct evidence of an unethical opening of the floodgates? This group of schools saw their median LSAT scores decrease an average of 3.17 points between 2010 and 2013. All other schools saw their medians decrease an average of 2.04 — a difference of 1.13. This difference, while seemingly tangible, likely lacks statistical significance because of overlapping score bands. The average LSAT median of 153 for the 28 schools yields a score band of 150-156, which overlaps with the 154-160 score band for the other schools” (and covers the same 154-160 band for 2010 graduates).”
Bottom line: Every graduating class thinks the newcomers are getting a free pass. Call it the first-born syndrome: We paved the way and now someone else is reaping the benefits. Not likely. Of course, you’ll always find conspiracists who believe every perceived trend is grounded in a well-conceived plan to maximize profits and stiff the public. Believe what you must… but good luck in getting adcoms to pull in one direction.
No, the kids are all right, to borrow a line from The Who. Despite the loss of a point or two on the LSAT, in Taylor’s view, law classrooms are becoming more diverse:
“So given the lack of statistical support for the cynical narratives, there may be another way to frame the trends we are seeing. It is possible that schools are being forced to take a more holistic approach to assessing applicants, with LSAT misuse being a luxury no longer afforded. If this is true, entering classes just might be getting stronger, despite our willingness to assume otherwise.”
Source: National Jurist